Apple’s Second Quarter Results: Pure Speculation

Generally when people predict a company’s fortune they express the pick in monetary terms. Which is convenient, we can all relate to the to a dollar sign. On the other hand those predictions only tell us about Apple’s financial health, which has been rosy for quite some time. If you’re interested in Apple’s popularity then those numbers don’t mean as much. No, what the folks who are deeply interested in the popularity of the platform want to know is the number of computers sold. Which is an interesting avenue of exploration if not a particularly meaningful one for a true Mac fan. Fortunately Apple is scheduled to release just such information Wednesday, will the results feature spectacular growth or will they usher in unbridled disappointment? There’s no way to know until Apple unveils the numbers. On the other hand waiting is boring, guessing is fun so let the speculation begin.

At this point it worth reiterating that I have no actual idea what I’m doing. There is no inside information and the conclusions may bear some resemblance to the numbers reported by Apple or they may be horribly skewed. Likely they will be right in some instances and wrong in others. In short placing even the smallest confidence on what follows is foolhardy at best and willfully ignorant at worst.

With the requisite admonitions and such well taken care of we can now turn out attention to more pressing matters. Namely total product moved in the second quarter of 05:

PowerMacs:
The picture isn’t rosy. Sure you hear stories about people wiring together PowerMacs to build fairly awe inspiring supercomputers but the practice is not widespread.  This particular segment has become nearly stagnant for Apple and the Mac Mini won’t help. The Mini’s impact on this segment may surprise some but there is a certain segment of home users who are non-demanding tower fans (for whatever reason) that now have a viable alternative. 
Three flips of the coin prediction: 150,000
First quarter of 2005: 167,000

PowerBooks:
The introduction of two-finger scrolling and motion sensing chips came a bit too late to really help PowerBook sales. On the other hand interest sparked by the Mac Mini probably sold a few computers.
Throwing a deck of cards in the air: 155,000
Q1:152,000

iMac/eMac:
The G5 iMac is possibly the best computer Apple has ever produced. Small-minded complaints about the video card and memory slots are generally lodged by folks who would never buy an iMac to begin with (in other words people who think they’re power users). I suspect without the Mac mini sales would have been brisk but the addition of the Mini probably moved a few extra units out the door. You know the drill people go in for the Mini and leave with an iMac, its called up selling. The same thing holds for the eMac (a workhorse with looks to match).
Tea Leaves say: 415,000
Q1: 456,000

iBooks:
There has been absolutely no compelling reason to buy an iBook this quarter. Still they are the premium value in Apple’s portable lineup and people love a bargain. Great computers, cheap prices means machines out the door:
Chicken entrails quoth: 250,000
Q1:271,000

Mac Mini:
Ah, one of the wildcards. The consensus is that Apple is planning on manufacturing100,000 units a month. But, as with any new product introduction, there is a bit of a learning curve. Until recently there was a wait for both models of the Mac Mini though now only the $599 model commands a week’s worth of saying “Where the @#[email protected] my computer?” all that means good news for Apple.
The diving rod is pointing straight at: 175,000
Q1: 0 (guaranteed!)

iPod:
At this point there is no indication how Apple will list iPod sales. Will they include the Shuffle or will the break it out separately? If they stick to hard drive based numbers one might expect roughly 4.5 million iPods sold. It seems odd that Apple would sell the same number of iPods after the Christmas quarter as they did in the Christmas quarter but that is the history of the iPod. Though one has to wonder just when the demand for these things will slow down.
900 number psychics say: 4,500,000
Q1: 4,580,000

iPod shuffle:
Checking the Apple Store we see no wait for either model. Investigating your local Best Buy or CompUSA reveals a different picture, in those outlets it appears that the player is still in heavy demand. Not surprising since Toshiba noted that they were unable to keep up with demand. The supposed number of Shuffles Apple’s contractor is able to manufacture per month is somewhere in the 400,000 range.
Random song from the Shuffle’s playlist: 500,000
Q1: 0 (take it to the bank!)

And there you have it, all the fairly worthless prognostication one could ever desire. If by some miracle of randomness the numbers are somewhat close to the admittedly guessed at figures above it will be a nice quarter indeed for Apple.